Intermediate level · Module 5: Testing Changes and Causal Thinking · Lesson 1 of 3
Correlation, Causation and Confounders
Avoid concluding that one thing caused another just because they moved together.
In this lesson you will
- Distinguish correlation from causation
- Identify confounding factors
Key concepts
correlationcausationconfounderreverse causation
The lesson
Two numbers moving together does not mean one causes the other. Sales and staff numbers may both rise because of the holiday season.
A confounder affects both things. Branches with more training may perform better because they are in larger towns, not because of training.
Before claiming a cause, ask: could something else explain both? Could the cause run the other way?
Step by step
- Review three claims of cause and effect.
- Identify possible confounders.
- Check for reverse causation.
- Rewrite each claim accurately.
Practice activity
Critique three causal claims from a provided management report.
Expected result: Accurate rewrites that avoid unsupported causal claims.
Check your understanding
-
What is a confounder?
Show answer
A factor that affects both the supposed cause and the result.
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Does correlation prove causation?
Show answer
No.
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