Free course · Lesson 5 of 5
Business Forecasting & Data Analysis
In this lesson you will
- Calculate a moving average
- Present a simple forecast honestly
Looking backward explains what happened; basic forecasting helps a business plan for what's likely to happen next — using simple, defensible methods, not guesswork.
- Trend-based forecasting: If sales have grown steadily by about 5% per month, a simple forecast extends that trend forward — useful for short-term planning.
- Excel's FORECAST function: Projects a future value based on historical data using linear trend estimation.
- Seasonality: Many businesses have predictable busy/slow periods (e.g. school-term related, holiday-related) — factor this into forecasts rather than assuming a flat trend.
- Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees: Always present a forecast with its assumptions stated clearly.
Practical Skill: Use Excel's FORECAST (or TREND) function
on your region-by-month sales data to project the next month's expected sales.
=== FORECAST FUNCTION EXAMPLE ====FORECAST.LINEAR(new_x, known_y_values, known_x_values) Example: Known months (x): 1, 2, 3 (Jan, Feb, Mar) Known sales (y): 120000, 135000, 142000 Forecast for month 4: =FORECAST.LINEAR(4, {120000,135000,142000}, {1,2,3}) Result: approximately 152,333 === STATING YOUR ASSUMPTIONS === "This forecast assumes the current growth trend continues and does not account for [seasonal dip / new competitor / planned marketing campaign]."Practice exercise
From six months of sales, calculate a three-month moving average and write next month's forecast as a range with one assumption.
Key takeaways
- Moving averages reveal the trend beneath the noise
- Check forecasts against what actually happened
- Present forecasts as ranges with assumptions
Free self-study lesson — no certificate. For the full instructor-led program, see registration options.