Business Analytics · Intermediate level

Intermediate level · Module 4 of 6 · 15 guided hours

Scenario Planning and Sensitivity

Plan decisions under uncertainty with scenarios, sensitivity analysis and simple forecasts.

Learning objectives

  • Build a simple planning model from drivers
  • Compare pessimistic, base and optimistic scenarios
  • Identify which assumptions matter most

Topics

  • driver-based models
  • assumptions
  • scenarios
  • sensitivity analysis
  • break-even sales
  • communicating uncertainty

Lessons

  1. Lesson 1 Driver-Based Planning Models

    Build a simple model where results flow from clearly stated assumptions.

    driver-based modelinputsassumptionsoutputs

  2. Lesson 2 Scenarios and Break-Even

    Compare outcomes under different assumptions and find the level of sales needed to break even.

    scenariosbreak-evendownside riskdecision thresholds

  3. Lesson 3 Sensitivity and Communicating Uncertainty

    Find which assumptions move results most and present uncertainty honestly.

    sensitivity analysiskey assumptionstornado rankingranges

Practical activity

Build a driver-based profit model for opening a new branch and analyse three scenarios and key sensitivities.

Expected outcomes

  • Plans that show a range of outcomes
  • Focus on the assumptions that matter

Assessment

Scenario model and briefing marked on logic, transparency and judgement.

Taught live by an instructor — online or in person. Free course lessons are for self-study and do not lead to a certificate — see registration options.